MOSCOW (RIA Novosti): Russia’s budget revenues from the sale of oil and gas will reach $260 billion this year, significantly exceeding the results of the previous two years due to a sharp increase in energy prices, Rystad Energy analysts say.
“Despite the expected serious reduction in oil production in Russia this year, tax revenues due to a sharp increase in oil prices will increase significantly – to more than $ 180 billion… Extremely high gas prices in Europe, as well as liquefied natural gas in Asia will generate approximately $80 billion in tax revenue for Russia in 2022,” the company said in a statement.
Thus, it is noted that the expected income from Russia’s oil exports this year will be 45% and 181% higher than in 2021 and 2020, respectively. As for gas, analysts believe that the shutdown of supplies to Poland and Bulgaria will not have a significant impact on revenues.
Such results will be driven by price dynamics. In addition, after the start of the military operation in Ukraine on February 24, European buyers really began to avoid Russian oil due to sanctions fears. The first problems with oil exports were expected in March, however, according to Rystad, a similar situation was observed only in the first three weeks of the month. By the end of March, supplies began to recover with new orders from China and India. In April, oil exports from Russia remained stable.
At the same time, according to Rystad estimates, the volume of oil production in Russia will continue to decline and by 2030 will fall by 2 million barrels per day compared to 2021; At the same time, gas production will rise slightly, but will remain below pre-Ukraine conflict levels.
The tense situation in relations with Europe may lead to an embargo on oil from Russia. And if sanctions against the Russian Federation in the energy sector intensify, most likely this raw material will leave the Western market within a few months, which will lead to a further reduction in production due to limited opportunities for redirecting supplies to Asia, as well as due to an insufficient number of storage facilities, conclude the agency.
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